PAKISTAN READER

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ECP discrepancies in data put 13 million people at risk of losing their voting rights

In Brief
PAKISTAN ELECTIONS 2023
PR Exclusive Update 19
ECP discrepancies in data put 13 million people at risk of losing their voting rights
On 12 October, according to a coalition of civil society organizations, widespread over- and under-registration of voters around the nation would certainly result in the significant disenfranchisement of men and women and provide a very high margin for election manipulation and corrupt practices in the upcoming general elections. In its findings, Pattan-Coalition 38, an umbrella group of numerous civil society organizations, labour unions, and intellectuals, claimed that in 102 of Pakistan's 134 districts, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and Nadra were unable to register all eligible voters, while in 17 districts, there were more voters than eligible voters. Furthermore, analysis of ECP's voter data in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa also showed that a significant proportion of eligible voters have been disenfranchised in 21 of the 35 districts. This is because registration was found to be "low or very low" in five of the districts, low in 16 districts, and extremely over-registered in five additional districts. "It appears that Sindh is the only province in which there was no evidence of over-registration. However, under-registration was evident in 24 areas, the statement continued. (Iftikhar A. Khan, Discrepancies in ECP data expose 13m people to disenfranchisement Dawn, 13 October 2023)

Nawaz Sharif is the PML-N's pivotal figure in the election campaign
On 13 October, Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), is finally starting his journey back to Pakistan to end his four-year exile, and his party is rushing to prepare an "extraordinary welcome." Nawaz won't just be the centre of attention at a welcoming rally at Minar-e-Pakistan; he'll also likely return as the pivotal figure in his party's political future and the key organizer of its election campaign. According to party insiders, Nawaz would probably arrive in Lahore on 21 October, in a chartered aircraft. Before setting up the party's affairs for the elections, he will first "cleanse" himself of the accusations levelled against him and work to have his disqualification reversed. According to senior PML-N leader Riaz Hussain Pirzada, Nawaz will be actively involved in determining the party's electoral strategy. The most important of which would be to formally provide his approval for party members to begin their national election campaigns. He further stated, "It is obvious that the election campaign will gain momentum with the arrival of the party leadership in the country.”(“More Than A Political Beacon: Nawaz Sharif The Lynchpin Of PML-N's Election Campaign,” The Friday Times, 13 October 2023)

POLITICS
PHC requests the government's response to PTI's request to "stop" it from canvassing
On 12 October, The Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) petitioned the Peshawar High Court, accusing the government of preventing its leaders and workers from canvassing in the province, including holding rallies and gatherings, for the upcoming general elections. The court requested a detailed response from the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government. Justices Syed Arshad Ali and Abdul Shakoor made up the bench, and they instructed KP Attorney General Aamir Javed to present the government's response. Petitioners argued that the acts preventing PTI employees from attending demonstrations for national and international concerns, including Independence Day, Hurmat-in-Quran, and Hurmat-i-Rasool, as well as the filing of FIRs against them, should be declared illegal by the court. The petitioners also asked the court to revoke all "illegal" orders made by the government and administration against PTI leaders and employees for holding their scheduled public meetings in violation of Section 3 of the Maintenance of Public Order Ordinance and Section 144 of the Code of Criminal Procedure.
The petitioners were represented by attorneys Qazi Mohammad Anwar, Shah Faisal Uthmankhel, and Ali Zaman. When PTI employees held a rally in support of significant national occasions like Independence Day or against the destruction of the Holy Quran, according to Qazi Anwar, they were subjected to harassment and fabricated charges were filed against them by the government. Ali Zaman said that the district administration was restricting them against their will at the request of the interim province government. The government's representative, Danyal Asad Chamkani, asserted that the petitioners approached the court based on assumptions and that they had not provided any documented evidence to support their claim that their political activities had been halted. ( “PHC seeks govt’s reply to PTI plea against ‘stopping’ it from canvassing,” Dawn, 13 October 2023)

IHC rules that the Cipher trial will proceed
On 12 October, the PTI chairman reaffirmed his resolve to stand by his demands for "Haqeeqi Azadi" and "free and fair elections" as the Islamabad High Court (IHC) stated that the status of related petitions pending in the court has no bearing on the cipher trial of former prime minister Imran Khan, which is currently taking place at a special court. This is the first statement made by the detained former prime minister, who was first put behind bars after being found guilty in the Toshakhana case and later in the cipher case after the high court suspended his sentence in the former. He was transferred to Adiala earlier this month from the Attock prison. IHC Chief Justice Aamer Farooq made it plain during the hearing of a bail petition submitted by Mr Khan that the status of a case in the high court has no bearing on a trial in the lower court. The chief justice stated, "Pendency of petition means nothing; trial to be governed by the trial court." (Ikram Junaidi and Malik Asad, “Cipher trial will proceed, IHC rules,” Dawn, 13 October 2023)

Political leaders must seek solutions in court says Kakar
On 12 October, the caretaker prime minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar, stated that any leader, including Imran Khan, Asif Ali Zardari, and Nawaz Sharif, must seek judicial redress for their concerns. According to APP, he rejected the idea that PMLN leader Nawaz Sharif's decision to return home was the result of any agreement with the interim administration in an interview with the digital media outlet WE (World Echo) News. "The caretaker government has 'no soft place' for the PMLN or any other political party. He stated, "How can a caretaker government make such a deal?”. He claimed that Pakistan was experiencing the emergence of "regimental camps" and had become a battleground for political ideologies. He dismissed the idea that the caretaker system was comparable to the 'Kakar formula' of the 1990s, in which President Ghulam Ishaq Khan and Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif were compelled to resign to pave room for new elections. He stated that strong procedures were being implemented to stop the short-term smuggling of dollars to foreign money. He said that the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had also complimented the government's attempts to prohibit foreign currency smuggling and unlawful transactions, which is why the rupee's appreciation versus the dollar is evidence of the campaign's success. (“Imran, Zardari, Nawaz have to seek legal remedy: PM,” The News International, 13 October 2023)

ECONOMY
Projected fall in petrol and HSD prices below PKR 300
On 13 October, Dawn reported that petrol and high-speed diesel (HSD) prices are likely to fall below PKR 300 per litre in the upcoming review. This fall, which has been linked to a drop in global oil rates and an appreciation of the rupee, would lead to a per-litre fall of up to PKR 38 in petrol and PKR 20 in HSD. Despite the projection, the government could influence the prices by increasing the petroleum development levy, especially on HSD. Its current target is a PKR 869 billion levy on petrol products, given the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) requirements. Pakistan has recently seen protests over inflated electricity and oil prices, and this development would indicate a substantial fall, potentially ending the rising inflation in the economy. (Khaleeq Kiani, “Petrol may fall below Rs300 in coming review,” Dawn, 13 October 2023)
 
EXTERNAL
Pakistan is seeking a long-term oil deal with Russia
On 12 October, according to the Russian news agency TASS, Pakistan was considering striking a long-term agreement to buy up to 20,000 barrels per day (between 0.7 million and one million tonnes) of Russian oil each year, Energy Minister Mohammad Ali stated. According to a formal statement made following the meeting, both parties reaffirmed their commitment to promoting better cooperation to boost the volume of bilateral trade. This dedication represents the two nations' common desire to strengthen their close friendship and mutually beneficial economic relationship. USD 920 million was exchanged between the two countries overall in 2022–2023. While Pakistan's imports totalled USD 846 million, its exports to Russia totalled USD 74 million. This demonstrates that there is more room to grow the amount of trade between the two countries. (“Pakistan eyes long-term oil deal with Russia,” Dawn, 13 October 2023)
 
Pakistan and Russia in mutual agreement to strengthen bilateral trade
On 12 October, Pakistan’s Commerce Minister Gohar Ejaz and Russia’s Ambassador to Pakistan, Danila V Ganich, agreed to increase bilateral trade following a meeting in Islamabad. This reflects a mutual willingness to strengthen economic ties, following bilateral trade worth USD 920 million in 2022-23. With imports from Russia reaching USD 846 million, Pakistan’s Energy Minister reportedly said that Pakistan is considering signing a long-term deal to buy 0.7-1 million tonnes of Russian oil per day. Exports to Russia, which amounted to USD 74 million, included citrus fruits, leather, textiles, and fabrics. Ejaz stated that the discussions “have set the stage for a brighter economic partnership with Russia.” (“Pakistan eyes long-term oil deal with Russia,” Dawn, 13 October 2023)

Fake Pakistani passports issued to Afghans recovered
On 13 October, The News International reported that a significant number of Pakistani passports were issued to Afghan nationals, with Saudi Arabia recovering fake passports from 12,000 Afghan citizens. With investigations underway, Umar Javed was arrested in Lahore after an interrogation with a former officer and a serving grade-15 officer of the Passport Directorate. The Pakistani ambassador in Saudi Arabia refused to comment on the issue, while the Nadra data is being counterchecked as part of the investigations. (Azaz Syed, “Scam of issuing Pak passports to Afghans unearthed,” The News International, 13 October 2023)
 
Kabul does not give clearance to Pakistani aid following earthquake
On 13 October, The Express Tribune reported that following the 6.3 magnitude earthquake in Afghanistan, the Taliban refused to accept aid from Pakistan. Despite Pakistan’s Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar’s announcement of sending rescue teams with essential goods immediately after the earthquake, the personnel were never sent due to Kabul’s refusal to provide clearance. This lack of acceptance is potentially due to strained relations between the two countries, over activities of the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Pakistan’s recent announcement to deport all illegal Afghan immigrants, and restrictions on Afghan imports. Nonetheless, Foreign Office Spokesperson Mumtaz Baloch stated that “Pakistan also stands in solidarity with its Afghan brothers and sisters,” stating that they would “meet any needs” for their “relief and recovery efforts.” (Kamran Yousaf, “Taliban refuse Pakistan aid for quake victims,” The Express Tribune, 13 October 2023)
 
CPEC
“We failed to realise even one-fifth of the potential,” Fawad Hasan on BRI and CPEC
On 12 October, Privatisation Minister Fawad Hasan Fawad acknowledged Pakistan’s failure to realize the full potential of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and its inability to increase exports, which are essential for financing debt and investment obligations. The focal person on CPEC affairs during the peak of the initiative, emphasised that while CPEC has invested USD 25 billion in over 20 projects, Pakistan failed to leverage CPEC's potential to increase exports as required. On these lines, he said, “Whatever is happening on Pakistan’s economic front is happening because of us, not because of CPEC.” Fawad also highlighted the need to establish Special Economic Zones (SEZs) under CPEC, blaming the “failure” of not putting together SEZs as a cause of low exports. Additionally, he criticised Pakistan's tendency to politicise investment figures, highlighting that despite being advised by China that talking about the billions of dollars in investment was unnecessary, Pakistan “kept talking about these numbers for political benefits.” Lamenting that they are unable “to segregate strategic development interests from our political interests,” he criticised Pakistan’s actions with regard to the initiatives, saying that they have “failed.” (Shahbaz Rana, “Pakistan fails to realise CPEC potential,” The Express Tribune, 13 October 2023)

“The Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party, led by Abdul Aleem Khan, has stated in its manifesto that its primary focus will be to enhance the quality of life for the general populace and promote progress.” -Sameet   “Afghans who worked with British forces have been trapped in Pakistan for months because the gov decided in Nov last year to stop MoD flights and ask the families to find their own homes in UK. Now the High Court has heard that Rishi Sunak was the person behind that decision.” -Holly Bancroft   “At just under 6 percent, South Asia is expected to grow faster than any other emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) region in 2024–25.  Not all countries in the region are growing fast, and three—Afghanistan, #Pakistan and #Sri Lanka—are in acute crisis. The region’s progress is akin to that of mountaineers at the foothills of the Himalayas. Some have barely left the base camp. Others are moving at a brisk pace but still in low altitude. All still have a long way to go. And the path will get more difficult ahead.Government debt in South Asia averaged 86 percent of GDP in 2022.  In some countries, outright defaults have short-circuited growth while, in others, increasing domestic borrowing by governments has driven up interest rates and diverted credit away from the private sector. Elections could add to spending pressures. An urgent policy priority for the region is, therefore, to manage and reduce fiscal risks. Over the longer term, the policy priority is to accelerate growth and job creation in a sustainable manner.” -Atique Ur Rehman

“Pakistan, due to its own national security, economic and political crises, is no more in a position to sustain millions,” -An opinion in Dawn, “Afghan refugees & international law”